Issues to Watch in 2025: Federal Immigration Changes
On Monday January 6. 2025 Justin Trudeau announced his plans to step down as Canada’s prime minister and leader of the Liberal party and prorogue Parliament until March 24.
When Parliament returns in March, the opposition parties have committed to triggering an election. The uncertainty in Ottawa comes at a perilous time. With the challenges posed by a Trump Presidency, along with significant domestic and global pressures, Canada needs focused leadership to steer our national economy back on course.
Nevertheless, the changes to Canada’s immigration system announced in late 2024 come into effect this year and they will have serious impacts on B.C.’s economy and labour markets. This article seeks to explore those challenges and offer recommendations to remedy the situation.
Sustainable immigration policies that grow our economy, set newcomers up for success, and elevate Canada’s global reputation cannot be achieved through regulatory pendulum swings and unilateral decisions by the federal government.
Recent sweeping immigration changes, including restrictions on temporary residents and a projected 45% reduction in study permits between 2025 and 2026, will put British Columbia on the brink of population decline—a first in our province’s history. This will have far-reaching economic and social consequences.
Among these consequences are higher costs for domestic students, the potential cancellation of programs, and economic impacts affecting jobs and institutions.
International students contribute over $7.5 billion annually to B.C.’s economy, supporting more than 79,000 jobs. Their tuition often funds critical academic programming that benefits all students, particularly in smaller communities. Without them, institutions may be forced to reduce affordability or cut programs altogether and undermining the very foundation of a skilled and highly trained workforce needed to drive B.C.’s productivity and growth.
In fact, preliminary estimates of the impact total $100 million in 2024/2025 alone – likely increasing in future years. Furthermore, assuming a reduction of 22,500 students in the first year of these changes would be equivalent to an annual reduction of $1.4 billion in annual expenditures and $787 million in GDP for B.C.’s economy.
It is true that the sudden and unexpected overall population growth over the past few years was too much too quickly, and it is evident that Canada did not have the capacity to provide healthcare, housing, infrastructure, and good jobs to Canadians and newcomers. Yet unilateral and poorly coordinated changes are not the solution. The federal government has an obligation to work in collaboration with the provinces and territories to strike this balance.
Adding to the strain, new restrictions on Post-Graduation Work Permits impose eligibility limits across various institutions. While a cap on international enrollment may be warranted, provinces must have the ability to allocate seats to programs that directly address local labour shortages.
For example, despite the healthcare crisis and nurse shortage, the initial lists of programs eligible for a post-study work permit from IRCC (Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada) did not include nurses! Though this has since been rectified it highlights the disconnect between Ottawa and the on-the-ground labour market needs.
Moreover, when it comes to international education, brand is everything. International education is a highly competitive market and students looking to study abroad have a wealth of options. Canada is not guaranteed to be chosen by students going forward.
At the same time, IRCC’s outdated and slow permit processing exacerbates these challenges. For instance, Australia processes most study permits within 29 days, compared to Canada’s 120-day standard. The elimination of the expedited Student Direct Stream (SDS) has only worsened the situation. Such inefficiencies damage Canada’s reputation and deter future applicants.
Between risings costs, increased regulatory burden, and a waning economy, B.C. businesses are struggling and consequently focused primarily on running their operations.
Many of them are unaware of the significant impact of these changes on their business over the coming months and years, which is why we’ve written to the federal government outlining our concerns with their decisions on B.C.’s workforce and economy and provided a series of recommendations to remedy the situation.
- Empower British Columbia to determine which programs qualify for Post-Graduation Work Permits, ensuring alignment with provincial labour market needs.
- Provide transparency by publicly releasing the economic impact of these cumulative policy changes on B.C.
- Enhance processing standards for study and work permits to match or exceed peer nations, connecting talent with the workforce more effectively.
- Foster stability by clearly communicating a short-, medium-, and long-term vision for international education in Canada.
What we desire is stability and a recognition that our system requires a functioning and collaborative federalism that has a mutual understanding and appreciation that our collective future and economy relies on the talent and skills of our students and next generation. We urge the federal government to advance the following recommendations as soon as possible.